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影
COPY.
Enclosure
3.
Hon. Colonial Secretary,
Any estimate must be based on a number of
41
assumptions which can only partially be correct. I am assuming that the whole 50 chests are sold and no more. The 260 for local consumption are sold at $0.50 and the 240 for export are sold at 83.20 per tael. 83.20 is the present price for licit export and it cannot well be raised so long as the Honekone Farmer way boil for export. The price of raw opium is that of the July Auction. Under these conditions we get the following figures:-
Sale of 280,800 taels at 85.50
( 260 chests)...
Sale of 259,200 taels at 83.20.
.81,644,400
29,440
Total sales.
.82,373,840
£724,080
1,056,666
144,000
.81,924,746
Cost of 500 chests Raw Opium at
Rs. 2,110 with cheries.
Rent to Government.
Workin, Expenses...
Total expenses
leaving an annual profit of practically $450,000.
2.
In this Estimate I think that the price of
raw opium is distinctly low. If the price of the Larch Auction is
taken, Rs. 3,090 the cost of raw opium would be 81,060,900 and the
yearly profit would be reduced to $112,674. Rs. 3,090 was the
figure used for estimating the Hongkong Opium Revenue.
3.
The sumptions on which the above figures
are based are in no sense accurate. The actual local consumption
in Lacao cannot possibly exceed 100 chests per annum. The remain- -ing 110 chests Lust be sold for illicit export and it is
questionable whether it can be sold at the high prics figure £5.50. Formerly the Hongkong Farmer sold for illicit export at 83.80 per tael while the price for local consumption was 85.00.
4.
On the other hand at the expiry of the present Hongkong Farm, the competition for the Lerican Market will be so reduced that it is possible that they will be able to raise the
•Viwanəı” muid to Jnewtroyed (I) -;etoli
.ojjess) Inisitt0 (S)
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